Why I Blame the Chinese Nation for the Covid-19 Outbreak
If you are cynical, you can assume that I blame China in an effort to maintain peace between me and my few remaining friends and colleagues in the United States of America, whose President (referred to as “The Orange Fascist” by one of my friends and colleagues) is blaming the Chinese, and since President Chump gained about a half the vote, we must assume that …
I have a different reason. Better yet. I have a reason, unlike some people. My reason is based upon the excellent education I had in High School, this time in Geography and in Mathematics.
Rough figures alert!
Let’s say that the population on Planet Earth is nine Billion humans, and that the population of China is three Billion. I know that both figures are not correct, but they are close enough for the argument that follows.
Suppose that a “new” virus, or a mutation of an old virus, can arise spontaneously in a human being. It can do that, no matter whether the virus arrives from outer space and just happens to hit one particular human, or whether the virus migrates from some other living thing – plant or animal – and hits that particular human.
If humans were distributed evenly across the land masses of the planet, then there is a three-in-nine (or “one-in-three”) chance that the new virus appears in a Chinese person.
That is, China will be the most likely source of a new virus. Put your money on China, is my advice. If you don’t believe in first-past-the-post gambling, put a second bet on India-and-China. You’ll clean up for sure.
You won’t be guaranteed to win, but in the long run, you’ll win way more than you lose.
“But wait Chris” I hear you wail, “For all that China has one-third the population of Earth, they don’t have one-third the area!”.
True.
So now consider the density of humans per square mile in China (area 9,000,000 square miles, 3,000,000,000 people) and, say, Australia (3,000,000 square miles and 30,000,000 people). Or Wyoming. If the virus arrives from outer space and heads to China, it has 333 people per square mile as targets, whereas in Australia only 10 people per square mile. Thirty-to-one odds on, China.
And yes, I know that residents of Sydney in New South Wales are pretty dense, but nowhere near as densely packed as in about a thousand cities in China. (Australia doesn’t have a thousand cities). Further I would argue that China’s cities are more densely populated in terms of high-rise buildings than any Australian City.
There are many variables, weakening in effect as one spreads out.
Take domestic animals for example. Cows. Or Chickens. Or Pigs. Pick one.
In terms of human consumption you need a great many more pigs in China to feed 3,000,000,000 people than you do in Australia to feed 30,000,000 people. Yes; Australia has an export industry which increases the number of cattle or sheep or pigs, but in terms of daily contact with meat – consumption and handling in particular – you have fewer cows to be slaughtered, processed and eaten in Australia than in China. If you want to carry this to a boundary condition, ask yourself “What are the chances of a virus arising in a cow in Antarctica?” and you’ll do just fine.
Think about this carefully and you will find that in terms of natural causes, we should expect the majority of new viruses to come from China. That does not mean that no new virus can come from Spain, or The United Kingdom, Bolivia or the Bonavista Peninsula. Just that a new virus is more likely to come from China than from anywhere else.
If you would like a little fun work out this example and determine which place will be worse hit by Covid19 – Toronto (Ontario) or Bonavista (Newfoundland).
Assume that the population of Bonavista is 3,500 and that the population of the Toronto GTA is 7,000,000. (I have adjusted from true values so you can work these sums out in your head). Assume that the tallest block of flats in Bonavista is two storeys high, and that Bonavista does not have two independent transit systems serving a major international airport.
Try to show why Bonavista should suffer more deaths from Covid than does Toronto
Try to show why Bonavista should suffer more detected infections from Covid than does Toronto
Do the reported figures strengthen your argument (in which case you are probably correct) or do they weaken your findings (in which case you are probably wrong).
Try the same exercise between Glasgow, Scotland, and Glasgow, Montana, USA.
Please note that I have not ascribed any personal characteristic to any individual Chinese person, nor to the Chinese nation in total. I am using only human-imposed political and state boundaries, and simple arithmetic in my arguments.
Given the likelihood of a new virus of mutation to arise in China, we might consider giving China whatever it asks for in terms of assistance in dealing with viral outbreaks.
That is, if we serious about virus outbreaks.
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709-218-7927 The Landfall Garden House 60 Canon Bayley Road Bonavista, Newfoundland CANADA A0C 1B0 |
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