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Global Warming 2
This is not about Global Warming (well, OK, maybe towards the end), it is about Logic. As usual.
On Monday, July 24, 2006 The Toronto Star quoted an Arctic resident as saying “Last June or May we reached up to 31 degrees for almost a week.". Some northern residents blame global warming. "When you look back 20 years, it gets really hot a lot earlier." they said. "When I was growing up I didn't notice these kind of temperatures back then.".
Your primeval reaction will be to agree. “That’s right! I’ve noticed that too. It is much hotter now than when I was a kid”.
But that is terrible thinking. Here is why I pass judgment.
First:
We are older now. When we were kids our bodies were more resilient. Now the heat we experienced fifty years ago saps our energies much more. You slow down as you get older.
Second:
What ten-year old kid spends summer vacation monitoring temperature records? All we wanted was for there to be no rain so we could ride our bikes or swim at the pool all day long. Bring on the HEAT! Summer time is for fun-in-the-sun for kids.
Third:
Since we were kids we have been bombarded with warnings about ultra-violet light, skin cancer, and a host of other sun-related dangers. Whether or not these dangers are real, today we are made aware of them, and this colors our thinking, lending weight to an undercurrent of “sun equals hot is bad”, so that “hot days” become equated with terrible things about to happen.
Fourth:
This whole business of human-memory records is at fault. “ … it gets really hot a lot earlier”. You will read too that “It was not so hot back then”, and this is borne out by weather readings that proclaim “Hottest July 18th since 1911”. Of course. In any span of a hundred years, one year is going to have the hottest July 18th of them all. Right now it might be 1911’s turn. But prior to 1911, perhaps the hottest July 18th in the previous hundred years was in 1812, and maybe it was hotter than July 18th 1911, in which case there would be an argument for global cooling.
Fifth:
Try changing "When you look back 20 years, it gets really hot a lot earlier." To read "When you look back 19 years, it gets really hot a lot earlier." Is there much difference really in the implication? No. The implication is still “It was hotter back then”. Now try "When you look back 18 years, it gets really hot a lot earlier." Different? Not really. Continue in this manner and you will arrive at "When you look back 1 year, it gets really hot a lot earlier." Now that seems ridiculous. (You can try the same thing backwards, 21 years, 22 years etc.).
There is nothing special about the number “twenty”, but clearly if we only go back one year, we have about a 50-50 chance that last year was hotter. Global Warming notwithstanding. In any short span we will see random fluctuations. And in any long span we will still see random fluctuations.
OK. Here’s what I think about Global Warming”:
(a) Temperatures have been on a general rise since 11,000 years ago. That’s when the Wisconsin Ice Sheet melted, leaving the Great Lakes and an orphaned Ohio River.
(b) Prior to, say, 15,000 years ago, temperatures were on a general decline as we headed towards that two-mile thick chunk of ice atop Ontario. Prior to that they went up. Prior to that they went down. It is what they do.
(c) Regardless of whether or not Global Warming is a significant threat, I feel strongly that humans are making a mark WE DO NOT NEED TO MAKE on the environment. We BURN too much, WASTE too much, POLLUTE too much, and so on. I’m all for what the Global Warmists recommend – use less energy, reuse artifacts, slow down just a bit – but not at the expense of logic.
So, turn off that light when not in use. Re-use grey water for the house plants. Eat smaller meals more frequently and waste less food. And so on. You will, of course, read more at www.chrisgreaves.CA/sufe .
709-218-7927 CPRGreaves@gmail.com Bonavista, Friday, December 20, 2024 4:33 PM Copyright © 1990-2024 Chris Greaves. All Rights Reserved. |
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