Can A. J. P. Taylor Be Wrong?

A. J. P. Taylor is a respected British historian. Author of some 30 or more books on history.

I'm reading "The Course of German History" in paperback form, and right there on page seven I see " … Europe has never experienced such a profound and lasting disaster as did the German middle classes just at the moment when their financial power was it is greatest …".

And I'm thinking "pride goes before a fall" and "It's always darkest …" and so on.

I'm thinking "The only thing a green traffic light can do is turn amber".

I'm thinking that the "hottest summer on record", in retrospect, will always be followed by a cooler summer (substitute "wetter"/"dryer", or 'coolest"/"warmer" etc.)

It seems to me that a toppling disaster DEFINES a peak.

So it is natural to anticipate a fall from power for the most-powerful, poverty for the richest, a slump in sales after "our most successful year".

Doesn't mean it's going to happen this year, but happen it will, and that graph line will start descending after it ha searched its peak.

The main problem is in deciding before it reaches its peak, when the descent will start!

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